June 23, 2006
Radioactive Church Attendance: predicting your congregation’s half-life
Some churches are more unstable than others. This may not be the result of impulsive leadership or poor planning, but rather the life stage of the congregation. Dave Terpstra pastors The Next Level Church in Denver, a community comprised primarily of young singles and families. Here, Dave compares the instability of church attendance to the half-life of radioactive material and gives some helpful suggestions from his own experience.
I have noticed a trend in the churches of which I have been a part. Most church attenders have a half-life. In other words, on average, one can predict the longevity of an individual's participation in the church by their life stage. [I'm going to be using general terms and rough numbers so please don't get lost in the details, but try and stick with the overarching analogy.]
After high school students graduate from high school, about half of them will leave the church. After college students graduate, about half of them will leave. When a college grad takes a career, again half of them leave the church. When they get married, when they have kids, when they become empty nesters, when they retire?half, half, half, half.
Chances are more than half leave after high school and maybe more than half stay from empty-nester to retirement. However, the phenomenon of church members leaving at life's natural transition points still exists. So what does that mean for us as church leaders?
1. Just like in radioactive material, the more "half-lives" the material has made it through, the more stable the material. Therefore, retired people are the most stable, followed by empty-nesters. High school and college students are terribly unstable (in case you didn't already know).
2. Churches that target young families are targeting those who may be stable for the longest period of time. A family with a newborn will potentially stay for 18 years until their child graduates from high school and they become empty nesters.
3. If the numbers turned out to be true based that means only one out of 64 high school students will actually make it to retirement in the church.
4. Radioactive material doesn't disappear all at once. The material transforms over time. Don't expect all of the transitions to take place at once, but they will take place.
Since my church is full of students and singles it is more unstable than a church full of empty-nesters and retirees. However, instability and radioactivity can produce a lot of energy as well. So remember that there are costs and benefits to both sides.
But since most churches seem to go after families, allow me to give some more general challenges and warnings.
1. Don't just go after the "easy" target of young families. Students and singles need the church too. Especially considering how unstable their lives are, perhaps they need us even more than young families. Deal with the instability and reach young people for the Kingdom!
2. Give your youth pastor, college pastor, and young adult pastor a break! You cannot expect them to be able to retain every student and individual that was at the previous stage. Even the best senior leaders don't keep everyone who becomes and empty-nester. Cut them some slack.
3. Pay attention to an increased adult population nearing a transition point. If a couple of families every year become empty-nesters that may not be a significant change. If 1/2 of all your families go through that transition in three years time, you may see a major drop in attendance or participation.
4. Constantly go after individuals on the lower end of each half-life cycle. Remember, you can't just expect everyone to transition from one stage to the next.
5. Pay attention to staff members going through transition points as well. It should not be a surprise when a staff member leaves after getting married, having kids, or becoming an empty nester. Life transitions lead to job transitions as well.
I recognize I am not speaking with hard data to back up my conclusions. I am simply making observations. But I am interested if there are churches that have mastered the art of retaining people in their community from one stage to the next. I'm curious if this is just a large church phenomenon or if smaller churches experience it too. I'm most curious about churches that are able to help someone make it from being a college student to a young family - the most unstable life stage of all.
Posted by UrL Scaramanga on June 23, 2006
Comments
My first impression is that, "Yes, that observation may reflect human nature." But then, shouldn't communities of the regenerate be about changing human nature into the image of Christ, and not just being a mirror of our inborn self-centeredness?
Posted by: John Hollandsworth at June 26, 2006
Absolutely! Great analogy Dave ... I too lead a faith community geared towards students and singles (www.voxohio.org) in the 18-35 generation, and we've chosen to expect instability, and it's saved us a lot of headaches. You can't 'program' the same way you would up the half-life chain. The older crowds are more stable. 'Fluid and Flexible' would be good words to describe our progams (or lack thereof). You are right to point out the energy that such instability brings. It's truly electric ... unstable. But we've found that our most powerful ministry has come in the spontaneous, unexpected, electric moments in our ministry. As a pastor, the instability can be maddening, but it can also be divine.
Posted by: Drew Moser at June 26, 2006
Just a question to get a sense of the thinking...
As an "ideal" of what church should be, which may be the more helpful approach for the DNA of a given church?
a) A core of stability that is highly "instability tolerant" or
b) A "dispersed center" of instabilities that might add up to some overall stability... i.e., stability defined more or less as the constancy of change?
Neither of these, it seems to me, would be all that easy to build or maintain... and each would also have certain inherent problems. So I'm not saying "which is the most optimal" but which may be better, ecclesiologically speaking?
Peace in Christ,
Taylor Burton-Edwards
Posted by: Taylor Burton-Edwards at June 26, 2006
In my experience with smaller churches, I see the half-life stuff happen with the younger stages, but not the older.
I think this article speaks to the need of diversity across generational lines. We need the energy of the young and the stability of the old. This is not always possible. You cannot be that much more diverse than the community you are in. But it is the ideal.
Posted by: Shannon Caroland at June 27, 2006
Thanks for the great thoughts! They ring way too true for too many people entering and exiting the church. Here are some helpful ideas our church has thought through based upon the following premise.
Premise: One of the primary tools of the Holy Spirit to mature and grow people is change. As leaders we need to be in step with the Spirit enough to recognize the transition and the appropriate response to it.
We find it very helpful to minimize the half life by proactively celebrating life stage transitions. Make a big deal out of graduations by celebrating them and by helping people see the “Next” in the sequence of connection and service in your church. Make a big deal out of parenthood by celebrating and then help parents see the “Next” in the sequence of connection and service. The same is true for empty nesters, for newly married, and many other life change moments.
It helps to have a healthy small group ministry that provides people the freedom to have a life transition without losing relationships. The shepherding a small group can provide is very powerful in the rescue of a sheep when it loses its way and the keeping of sheep when they experience change.
Treat ministry as a transition in your church so people have great freedom to move about different ministries that accommodate life changes. Encourage high standards in ministry so people aspire to achieve as opposed to fill in a gap. This is done by attaching impact to vision in your church and then showing people how they have made a difference. Just ideas but they have helped us with half life.
Posted by: leoskeo at June 28, 2006
One thing to take comfort in is that a person who is leaving at the half-life point is very likely JUST leaving your particular church. They will take what they have been taught and put it to use for the rest of their lives.
In one church my dad pastored, upon the coming of a new pastor who was, of course, much different from my dad, people moved on. At first glance, one might think that all his labors went down the drain. But today, some of our finest members are now pastoring their own churches and doing a great job. Some of our best friends are active in whatever church they decided to attend.
We are, after all, called to go into all the world. And if everyone stayed at the church they were raised in...well, it just wouldn't happen would it? So, let them go (even if it does hurt) and let them join what they have learned from you with what they will learn elsewhere to become even more effective Christians.
Oh, by the way, for all those transitioning OUT...there will be those transitioning IN. Thank God!
Posted by: Aaron at June 28, 2006
Perhaps, one should look rather at the generational needs in a given church. I have found that we, as pastors, do a poor job in understanding and addressing the diverse generational needs of church members.
Posted by: Wilbert Hobbs at July 4, 2006