July 13, 2007
The Disappearing Middle
What the growing gap in our culture means for churches, leaders, and volunteers.
Leaders should be concerned about the disappearing middle, according to Chad Hall. That bulge in the middle of a bell-shaped curve that represents the great mass of consumers and citizens and churchgoers and volunteers is getting squeezed. The result is the shrinking of the middle and the swelling of the ends, and it's this growth of the extremes in all aspects of our society that has church planter and leader coach Hall intrigued. Here he offers some thoughts on its effects on money and manpower, faith and ministry.
A while back I heard Len Sweet say that our society is moving away from the "bell curve" and toward something called the "well curve." His comment got me doing some research on the topic and thinking about what all of this means for church leaders. Who knew that bells and wells were such important topics for church leaders to consider?
Since high school we've known all about the bell curve: that fundamental law of natural science and statistics that defines normal distribution as being massed near the middle while being low on the extremities. Represented on a graph, the distribution looks like a bell-shaped curve. The bell curve implies that most people gravitate toward the middle or average and avoid the extremes. For example, most people are of average height, have moderately sized families, and earn a "C" in statistics; few people are really tall or really short, few have very large or very small families, and few earn A's or F's.
But within the turbulent days we live, a new phenomenon is being recognized. The distribution for some of our choices is an inverted bell curve, or a well curve. In these cases, the population gravitates toward the ends or extremes and is lowest in the middle. The well curve describes many economic and social phenomena. For instance, television screens are simultaneously getting both larger (60" plasma!) and tinier (watch the latest episode of 24 on your i-pod!); stores are getting larger (Wal-Mart) and smaller (specialty boutique stores); people are eating more healthful foods (organic) and more fast foods (McDonald's).
Perhaps more significant than the rise in the extremes is the decline of the middle: consider the disappearance of the middle-class, the demise of mid-sized companies, the loss of status for anything considered average and the polarization of politics in America. Our tastes and choices are shifting away from the middle and toward the extremes. The well curve helps describe a number of interesting church trends going on these days...
...how the church is moving theologically liberal and conservative, with the disappearance of the moderate; how churchgoers increasingly prefer megachurches and microchurches but not mid-sized congregations; and how the church is both growing and losing prominence within the larger society.
On the local church level, pastors and other church leaders need to pay attention to the well curve for another important reason: it describes how churchgoers participate in the life of a given congregation.
The New Churchgoers: Very Active or Hardly Active
In a bell curve context, church leaders could expect most members to be moderately involved in the life of the congregation while the fringes were inhabited by the highly involved at one end and the minimally involved at the other end. But in a well curve context, leaders can expect few people to be moderately involved; instead folks will be either highly involved or barely involved.
The question is How can pastors and other church leaders deal effectively with the well-curve involvement of their church members?
As a coach to pastors and congregations, I've noticed four trends among churches that are adapting to this new context.
? Membership. Churches are rethinking membership in seismic ways. Some consider anyone on the mailing list to be a member or they drop membership altogether. Other congregations emphasize membership and heighten the bar of what it takes to join the church.
Church leaders who are embracing the well-curve reality allow for a sense of belonging at both ends of the spectrum. This often results in leadership strategies that make membership available at two polarities: membership that is quick and available to practically anyone, and a level of membership that signifies considerable choice and high expectation.
? Money. With the onset of well-curve participation patterns, church budgets must be adjusted because there are fewer and fewer "average givers" these days. The two (non-contradictory) messages being sent to the congregation are "don't feel pressured to give" and "give even more." Rather than rail against the old 80/20 principle of giving, some church leaders are adapting their stewardship strategies to take advantage of it. They increase overall giving by giving appropriate attention to the ends of the giving continuum.
As one pastor told me, "If I ask everyone to give 10 percent, the minimal giver stops giving or leaves the church altogether while the big giver obliges by giving less than he can. I'm finding it more helpful to talk about starting small or giving big. Those messages tend to hit home."
? Movement. When it comes to moving people into deeper spiritual waters, North Point church near Atlanta provides a great example of maximizing the extremities while giving fittingly minimal attention to the middle. They talk about moving people "from the foyer to the kitchen" which roughly means from large-scale worship experiences to small group participation, or from anonymous to intimate. The middle step (I believe they refer to it as "the living room") is an important one-time meeting that helps people consider and get started in a small group. Contrast this with typical Sunday school, a big middle strategy aimed at getting everyone to attend classes that avoid anonymity while rarely delivering intimacy.
? Manpower. In a well curve context, who is going to do all the work of the church? After all, there are classes to be taught, ministry to be done and good news to be spread. Some are finding the answer to be a shift in church staffing that emphasizes more volunteer and part-time personnel overseeing armies of workers.
Gone are the days of Mrs. Sally teaching the fourth graders 50 weeks each year for two decades. The newer paradigm is for two-thirds of the church to be involved as short-term or rotating workers, while a significant number of high capacity volunteers or part-time staffers bring continuity and oversight. In this paradigm, there is a shrinking role for the moderately involved volunteer.
What well curve trends have you noticed in your own congregation? And if the well curve trend continues or even increases, how will you respond?
Chad Hall serves as a coach/consultant to church leaders and is the co-author of Coaching for Christian Leaders: A Practical Guide (Chalice Press, 2007).
Posted by UrL Scaramanga on July 13, 2007
Comments
This matches well with my experience. This is a great insight, and without discounting either Len Sweet or the popular culture references, I wonder if anyone can point me to something a bit more - dare I say it - objective. Perhaps from Chad's book, or Len's?
I only ask because of the number of times that church 'leaders' have justified their business-as-usual approach by disputing the nature of the change in our context; for them the horizon is just more of the same, both inside and outside the church. So, what I'd really like to have a firm grasp of is how (and more importantly, why) things are different.
Posted by: Cam at July 13, 2007
personally, i think that losing the middle is a great thing for the church. while logistics may take a while to transform, that isnt the point of the church anyway.
i think this shift demonstrates an emphasis on a more mature "christianity", ie following Christ wholeheartedly or not much at all.
i think there is room for those who arent ready to follow with everything they have. there are some who just take longer to answer the call. but for those of us who are in the "church", we need to make Jesus Lord over everything in our lives. this is what He demands.
it may not be easy for the institutional churches to shift their emphasises, but i truly believe that they will manage. and more importantly, the church is shifting to all christians participating in the church, rather than just the clergy. havent pastors complained about lack of lay leadership for years? what an incredible shift!!!
peter
Posted by: pbandj at July 14, 2007
The Well Curve certainly helps explain a few things. For so long, as a lay leader at a growing church outside of Philadelphia I hear from the staff that not enough people are volunteering, but yet everything is getting done. No one seems to be burnt out, and with each new event, attendees who have never volunteered before emerge, and then fade back into the chairs. Could this be a reflection of our society's general lack of focus - that is, sound bytes are much better than long programs, snippets are better than full articles, volunteer for a once-and-done event is better than committing to something long-term. Just a thought...thanks for the insight.
Posted by: DK at July 15, 2007
This is an important paradigm shifting discussion. Leading people in the edges makes so much sense to how I see the reality in my ministry settings--more a well than a bell.
Posted by: Rich Kirkpatrick at July 15, 2007
Beware of passing over those in the middle relating to their spiritual maturity levels ... a trend I've noticed is that churches have a tendency to be either "seeker focused" or treat everyone as if they've been going to church for 40 years. There are plenty numbers-wise in the middle of the curve still trying to figure out how to re-connect with God (after some life difficulties) or looking for some way to go to the next level in their discipleship journey. If programming focuses on the ends of the curve, spiritual growth will suffer and we'll miss Paul's challenge to create fully formed believers. Rarely does anyone go from new believer to fully formed without intentional discipleship in between.
Posted by: LookUpward at July 16, 2007
I read and enjoyed Sweet's book -- The Gospel According to Starbucks -- where he talks about the "well curve" and the "disappearing mddle" in the broader context of discussing the formula Starbucks (and other successful businesses) has followed to succeed and suggests what the church can learn from Starbucks.
In some ways the middle has disappeared in our culture. People tend toward one extreme or the other on a whole host of issues. Nobody wants to be "just average"... If you are just "average" you can tend to be forgotten... You only get special attention if you are "well above" or "well below" average ... Nobody gets accolades for being "just average"; that's what's expected of us... We get upset if our child is not in the "above average" category in school... etc., etc.
But when it comes to the practice of the spiritual life, it seems that many people are in fact all too content to be "just average". This is why there is such a prevelent mindset that spiritual formation and true discipleship is only for "really pious people" and not for everyone.
It seems to me that in the Modern Era, we've tried to tame Jesus and make him "less extreme", to create an "average Jesus" that fits neatly in the middle of the curve where most of us naturally find ourselves. "Average Jesus" doesn't require us to change or grow much. We can remain comfortable where we are. In a way, we bring Jesus to us, rather than going out where he is.
But it seems to me that the Jesus of the Gospel is found out on the "wings" of the graph as it were. The only way we really experience the "life to the full" that Jesus offers is to move towards him. We've got to be willing to be live life several "standard deviations" beyond what is "normal", if we want to follow after Jesus.
Posted by: alan at July 16, 2007
It's important to distinguish between societal shifts and shifts in the composition of church's. The two don't always coincide. If the definition of conservative is a church that believes that the Bible is the word of God and that Jesus is therefore "the way, the truth, and the life", and the definition of a liberal church is a church that does not believe in the importance of Jesus as Savior and Lord and of the Bible as God's word, then it seems to me that the views of "conservative" are simply views that have not changed for centuries, and the views of "liberal" are those that are changing simply to coincide with societal changes. The definitions/positions of liberal and conservative certainly need to be defined.
I'd also like to see some numbers to backup the ideas put forth above. What percentage of church-goers attend small, medium, and "mega" churches? What are the numeric definitions of those three types of churches? Anecdotal evidence is insufficient and can lead us to jump to conclusions.
The points on church involvement are important, but I think that it has always been difficult to get people to volunteer and to be more than just Sunday-morning church attendees.
Posted by: Jonathan Schellack at July 16, 2007
Great comments on the article so far. Sounds like a lot of good thinking, concluding, and questioning.
To speak to Jonathan's post: I'm trying to recall if Sweet's book (Gospel Accdg to Starbucks) gives some of the data points. I think it does. He usually footnotes a book with lucid details.
Also, I'm not so sure all congregations are struggling to get people to be more than Sunday morning attendees. I had lunch on Sunday with the worship leader of the church where I was preaching and his wife mentioned that practically every adult in the congregation held a ministry position. I was surprised, but with the slow and steady growth of the congregation, plus the resource-intensive childrens and teens ministry they have, it made sense that a high volunteer rate would be the only way to pull that off. I'll have to check in with the pastor about how they pull off getting such a high % of volunteers.
To Cam's post... I'd love to know more about what you mean when you say "So, what I'd really like to have a firm grasp of is how (and more importantly, why) things are different." I think that's an important question, worthy of fleshing out.
Posted by: Chad at July 17, 2007
This may not be the place to say it, but I'm going to say it anyway. I'm not sure this post is about demographics, but just in case it is - I'm the demographic that no one wants in their church. No one ever says, "we want God to send us needy people," or "we want God to send us a lot of middle-aged divorced women with children who don't have much to contribute financially and may occasionally require some of our resources." I can't tell you how many congregational meetings I've sat through (in more than one church) while the leaders talk about the demographics they're looking for - upper middle class young couples in their 30s with two children. It's hard for me to hold my head up as I slink out of the meeting before someone, realizing that I'm not their preferred demographic, escorts me out. Maybe it's the mega-church movement at its worst, but I think churches worry a lot too much about this kind of thing, to their detriment.
Posted by: Alison at July 17, 2007
i'm not sure, but i tend to agree with this observation. although there are lots of disadvantages in the squeezing out of the middle, i feel that at least in the faith context, it is the choice of being hot or cold and not lukewarm that is encouraging. however, it has also led to an emergence of young people who either have to achieve or cease achieving in order to not be 'average' which is seen as uncool...
sometimes i wonder if this is a sign of the end times where there is a significant shift in mindsets, 'either you are here or there, there is no sitting on the fence'.
Philip. =P
Posted by: Philip at July 18, 2007
As a lay leader, I have trouble embracing this model of service. Unlike DK's experience, I see the lack of volunteers causing plenty of stress and burnout. I think it is poor leadership to write off 80-90 percent of the church and reinforce their "mooching," as it were. It is unhealthy for the personal lives of volunteers who spend four or five days a week at the church. And it causes a deficit in experience when the overtaxed and exhausted finally throw in the towel.
Beyond that, I believe the well curve is partially a product of our celebrity-centric society. Every child wants to be a movie star or a professional athlete. Very few want to be a teacher, firefighter, auto mechanic, or a nurse - and they somehow feel like losers when they "settle" for those vital occupations that were the dream jobs of children only 50 year ago. This is how we find people seeing worship and drama team as the only "cool" paths to service in church. Either they fail to make those teams or assume they have no talent for them and take a pass on volunteering altogether.
Posted by: Sharp at July 18, 2007
I have to think that the "inverted" bell curve, or "well curve" would evolve into a bell curve. Are we not talking about developing a new "average?" I need to think about this further, but I thought I would throw this thought out in case anyone would have further insight on this concept. I guess I was taught in statistics class that the Bell Curve was like an axiom, or a universal truth.
Posted by: Bill H. at July 18, 2007
I wonder how much of this is a normal shift in society that just goes back and forth like a pendulum from extremes to average and back again. I have seen it, even in me, in my 10 years as a pastor. It's in the Gospels with those who were reacting to Jesus.
Perhaps as the waves of culture go up and down we should seek less to go back to the harbor to reinvent the ship, and more to work at keeping the ship strong, trudging ahead. I am not saying to be ignorant of society's shifts. Perhaps we can stay focused on Christ, leading people from where they are to becoming all that Jesus intends.
I am thankful to those who can point out the shifts because it is useful in addressing who and where we are now. Then we can clearly define how to get to where Christ wants us to be.
Posted by: Bryan at July 19, 2007
The Disappearing Middle is an interesting concept and one that I am now noticing to be true at the church I pastor. To use a well-curve term, I pastor a micro-sized church - where we average around 70 each week. WE are located in a rural community about one hour south of Orlando and actually have people that come (and stay) because of the small size. Out of this, they attend regularly, and, a lot of them are getting involved regularly as well.
We have been emphasizing Spiritual Formation this year (more than in years past) and are noticing a difference here as well. The well-curve is showing that people are moving from the middle of the well to the edge - either the edge where they grow spiritually or the one where they don't. After reading this article on the Well-curve, it reminded me of something Jesus said: "I wish you were hot or cold...but you are lukewarm". What is encouraging to me about the well-curve is that some are joining in and volunteering (which helps prevent burnout). And even though I would love to see the number of volunteers growing (what pastor wouldn't?), I am enthused about the people that have. It seems to me that Jesus started with just a few men who ended up doing His work pretty well. Oh, and don't forget those on the opposite side of the field - the ones that crucified Him.
The well-curve has made me think about ministry in a new way. I especially liked the one statement about moving from asking people to give 10% and instead asking them to start small of give big. This has opened my eyes a bit to something I will pay more attention to in the future.
Posted by: Mike at July 19, 2007
Interesting article. We have the opposite problem(s) at River City Community Church in urban Chicago - all we have is the middle! Everyone is 23-40; Elders are nowhere to be found. There is a steady increase in Children's Ministry, but overall we are a "Young Adult Church." I wonder how we fit into the stats.?
www.christopherbennett.blogspot.com
Posted by: C Brooks at July 19, 2007
An economic middle squeeze is frightening. It seems like in government everybody wants to elect people who look out for the top 2% and bash people at the bottom end of the scale. Without the economic middle being prosperous, businesses or any other organization counting on revenue to do what they need to do will suffer.
Posted by: Steve at July 19, 2007
In this dialogue, it appears to me that being in the middle somehow seems to be associated with "lukewarm", weak discipleship. One end is defined as "hard workers, available to everyone, high volunteer etc", and we all know the other end is the pew warmer, sponge, etc.
I am very uncomfortable with this whole train of thought and believe the very basic assumptions are wrong. I also believe the leaders in these trains are so out of touch with the reality of their congregation's lives that they do not even know the condition of their flock anymore. Sharp had it right. The mentality of today, even in the church, is "over the top", "cutting edge", "leading the curve", etc. Meanwhile, the vast majority of believers are left to fend for themselves in their growth, their lives, and their communities. Attended a church in Chicago where the senior pastor was always declaring he was watching out for the young leaders-the pastors focused all their time on the young leaders. The families and middle aged were out cold. He publicly declared that if these "prime timers" wanted pastoral oversight and help, they would have to save up the money to hire a pastor just for them. I guess senior pastor meant senior pastor of the special-not the ordinary. The majority of followers of Jesus were not the "11" nor were they the "1" traitor. They were ordinary people who worked hard at supporting their families and become strong in their faith where they were, witnessing within their villages, their families, their communities and sending out the ones who were called to the ends of the earth. The vast majority of the church is starving for leadership that teaches and preaches how be a follower of Jesus in the middle curve.
Posted by: trisha at July 20, 2007
we definitely see this trend at the small church where i serve as worship leader. it's challenging enough at a mid-sized or larger church, but for a small, relatively new church of about 40 or so people, it's downright crippling at times, particularly in the areas of children's ministry and nursery. part of our issue is cultural as well...for most people here (in southeastern kentucky), church attendance/involvement is either a legalistic "must-do" or else sort of an optional "i'll go when i can" kind of thing. we're trying very hard to communicate the vision God has given us in a way that makes it contagious and makes people excited about the prospect of being part of what's happening, but it's proving more difficult than i or any of the other leaders imagined. prayers are appreciated, and advice is welcome -- my address is trick_ear@yahoo.com.
Posted by: j_sherman at July 23, 2007
Per j_sherman's post...
Not sure if this is the case with you and your congregation, but many smaller congregations suffer from volunteer limitations in part because of trying to do too much ministry for the number of people available. It's tough -- you want to have the children's stuff and worship leadership and all the rest, but the people just are not available to staff it all.
My advice (for what it's worth) is to focus on a few simple ministries that match a three-fold alignment: first, are your people excited to DO the ministry (not just HAVE the ministry)?; second, can you offer the ministry with excellence (even if limited, can the ministry be scaled down to a factor where you can do it very well)?; third, does the ministry directly match a cause that is vital to the vision you have for the church?
As you do a few ministries really well, people sense the momentum being built and you can increase the size/scope of ministry as the church grows to need and offer more.
My hunch is that you'd be surprised how few programs are really needed once you focus on ministries that God's equipped your church to offer the world.
The book Simple Church might also have some insights that'd be helpful.
Prayers for you!!
Posted by: Chad at August 1, 2007