Interesting thoughts on the future of megachurches, but one question about the demographic statistics. You say:

The point is, if most megachurches remain 85% white they will find a shrinking pool of potential members as the population becomes increasingly brown.

Of course, none of that is to say that megachurches should strive for greater diversity, but I see that as more of a spiritual issue than a practical one.

In the first post you said, mega-churches were overwhelmingly suburban. In this one you said they were 85% white. Well, they are 85% white because they are overwhelmingly suburban. That actually probably reflects the local population. I didn't see the chart, but unless it divided whites into hispanic and non-hispanic (it may have, I just didn't see it) then 85% white, would be pretty close to the population of the US because most hispanics are considered white by the census except when using the term non-hispanic white.

I would not really be concerned. The theology that drives many mega-churches is pragmatic. If the population around that church changes, the church will change as well. While many mega-churches may be unintentionally excluding minorities because of style, very few are intentionally excluding. And as racial groups spend more time together in other settings, they will begin to spend more time in church.

I had a pastor friend that was intentionally trying to start a multi-racial church. It ended up a black church with a few white families. He attended our church before starting his church for about a year. He recently visited again about 4 years later and realized that his intentional goal of starting a multi-racial church was less successful than our church's unintentional reality. I am not going to claim we do not intentionally make sure there are minority faces on stage and that we do not try to make all people feel comfortable. But the minority population of our church has grown significantly without a crisis or a lot of conversation from the pulpit.

I think mega-churches in general will be ok.

Why would meg-churches have a shrinking number of potential members, even if they are relegated to people who are white? The increase in non-whites does not mean a decrease in whites. It means a percentage decrease, but not a decrease in actual numbers. My guess is that whites will continue to have babies too.

"...we’ve spent more than a million before we can spend a dime on our mission. At the time, we had plans for a spectacular worship center with a retractable roof. After that conversation, I scrapped it.”

After spending tens of millions for their current set up and maybe 5 million EVERY year for staffing, on what basis would he think a super convertable cathedral is not part of "their mission?"

I know 85% of this is not part of God's mission but he hasn't figured that out yet. With his current mindset, why not the top down worship thing?

"...As Walt Kallestad discovered, for younger church leaders who value mission, social activism, and innovation.."

My observation is younger leaders talking more about mission, social activism and innovation, but it's veeeery little different in action and dollar allocation. It's all the same system - consuming 86% of the "giving" to buy goodies for the givers. Follow the money, not the talk. I have been in two different mega churches in the last 6 months. Both of them spent a great deal of time talking about helping the poor -"The Hole in the Gospel". Their big plan of action - fill hundreds of shoe boxes with basic necessities for the needy. What a help that is out of a 5 million a year budget. It didn't even tough the budget.

Isn't it all the same vision? Spend millions to support the staff and buildings? If there's anything left over - give it to missions, the poor, the needy .... Percentage of budget going to missions is 10% in an awesome church.

I can't see the younger pastors not wanting this - it's the same thing they have already - only on a much grander scale. "Bigger and bigger" is the only promotion path they have.

Isn't this what the institution is all about? "Come, let us build ourselves a city, with a tower that reaches to the heavens, so that we may make a name for ourselves..." (Gen 11:4)

"I can't see the younger pastors not wanting this - it's the same thing they have already - only on a much grander scale. "Bigger and bigger" is the only promotion path they have..."

And herein is the problem I think the American Church suffers from greatly...people going into ministry who have no business going into ministry.

I'm sorry, but this whole "G-d called me to service!" nonsense has gotten way out of hand, and I think Tim has the right of it...the Mega-church is the "Christian" answer to secular corporations, and the unfortunate part is that the Mega-church acts like a corporation without providing much of anything except superb pre-game entertainment.

Perhaps the Church should go on television and promote themselves...oh wait, that was tried already, and FAILED.

Look, if a young person is looking for grandness, promotion, recognition, and a pay-scale to go with all that then ministry is not the place they should go.
I'm sorry, but that mentality is exactly what has brought the American Church to this corrupt, vile, and apostate place to begin with...neck deep in politics, divisiveness, and seeking worldly power over G-d's reconciliation...the effort to undo the damage Jerry Falwell, Dr. Dobson, and the rest of the "public" church is a daunting enough task without another yahoo-yutz wanting to get their claim to fame with a neon name and a book deal that makes them look fresh, smart, and oh, so spiritual.